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8 Aug 2023
GBP is beginning to sag as the case for the BoE pausing is strengthening – MUFG
Economists at MUFG Bank note that the British Pound (GBP) is starting to run out of steam as UK economic data help the case for the Bank of England (BoE) pausing.
BoE signs of caution justified by incoming the data
The performance of the Pound is beginning to sag after a strong performance in the first half of the year and in our view, incoming data is certainly strengthening the case for the BoE to possibly pause its tightening cycle.
We have pencilled in one further 25 bps rate hike by the BoE in September but this was a very close call and one further hike was merely a reflection of the higher inflation in the UK than elsewhere and the limited evidence of worsening economic conditions.