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17 Jan 2025
GBP underperforms after weak Retail Sales data – Scotiabank
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is down on the day and is all but unchanged over a week when most of its peers have managed to grind out a gain on the USD, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
GBP is little changed on the week
"UK Retail Sales fell 0.6% in December, significantly weaker than consensus estimates (+0.3%). November data were revised lower as well. The data suggest UK growth stalled (at best) in Q4."
"Markets continue to price in a near certain (23bps) chance of a rate cut in February and have added to expectations for easing over the coming year. But a total of 66bps priced in through next December still looks a bit too light. BoE Governor Bailey speaks at 16ET."
"GBP slipped out of a minor uptrend from the mid-week low yesterday but losses failed to develop. The GBP is little changed on the week but that may mean that the recent downtrend has stalled at 1.21. A positive week for the GBP next week will lift technical prospects."