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14 Jul 2025
EUR unchanged despite trade tensions – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) is steady and entering Monday’s NA session unchanged against the US Dollar (USD), holding in remarkably well in the face of trade tensions and the US’s 30% tariff proposal, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.
Multi-month trend remains bullish
"The options market reveals no material change in sentiment, and interest rate differentials have also seen no major reaction to these latest developments."
"This week’s data releases include Tuesday’s ZEW investor sentiment figures followed by the final euro area CPI print on Thursday. The ECB calendar is light and we’ll be attentive to any shift in tone from policymakers’ comments as the recent tone has been broadly neutral."
"The multi-month trend remains bullish and the RSI is still confirming but softening toward the neutral 50 level. Medium-term support is at the 50 day MA (1.1473) and we look to near-term support closer to the lower 1.16s. We see near-term resistance in the mid-1.17s."