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2 Sep 2025
No further increase in OPEC+ production quotas expected – Commerzbank
This coming weekend, the OPEC+ countries with voluntary production cuts will meet virtually, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
Risk of a considerable oversupply on the Oil market
"This has led to speculation that a further easing of production cuts could be decided. According to a Bloomberg survey, the market participants surveyed do not expect this to happen for now. We also consider this unlikely."
"This is because the voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day have been completely reversed with the production increase implemented this month. The remaining restrictions of 3.66 million barrels per day, including 1.66 million barrels per day on a voluntary basis, are fixed until the end of 2026 according to a prevailing decision."
"We consider it unlikely that this will be changed outside of a regular OPEC+ meeting, especially since there is a risk of a considerable oversupply on the Oil market from autumn onwards."