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20 Nov 2025
GBP: Budget risk premium to stay – ING
On Thursday, markets should hear from the opposing sides of the Bank of England's MPC spectrum as Catherine Mann (hawk) and Swati Dhingra (dove) are both scheduled to speak, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
EUR/GBP to trade at 0.88 in the end of the year
"Yesterday's UK CPI report was not too remarkable, with hawks likely pointing to rebounding food inflation and doves to the multi-month moderation in services inflation. But as Huw Pill said earlier this week, the December decision hangs in the balance. The doves need one defection to push a cut through: we think a restrictive UK budget next week and upcoming data will be enough."
"The pound is trading with a moderate risk premium that appears likely to remain in place until the Budget announcement on 26 November, as the government's U-turn on income tax hikes has added a layer of uncertainty and unnerved bond investors."
"Our year-end target remains 0.88 for EUR/GBP, as the risk premium may well abate after the Budget, but we expect part of it will be replaced by dovish repricing."