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17 Apr 2015
Euroarea green shoots to support GBP outperformance against EUR – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - FX Strategists at Nomura, believe that green shoots of the euro area economy are influencing international trade and investment flows into and out of the UK, and we judge that the net impact is more likely to be GBP positive.
Key Quotes
“Green shoots of the euro area economy are influencing international trade and investment flows into and out of the UK, and we think the net impact is likely to be GBP positive.”
“While the low sensitivity of EUR yields to economic momentum under the ECB’s autopilot QE make it difficult for the UK income deficit with the euro area to shrink materially, the steadily low yield environment with improved euro area economic sentiment should lead to stronger foreign fixed income investment flows into the UK.”
“In addition, the euro area economic recovery can shrink UK trade deficits with the euro area. While UK external deficits have been elevated, ECB QE will help the financing via both positive impacts on current and financial accounts of BoP, in our view.”
“In the short term, higher political risks related to the UK general election may negatively influence foreign investment into the UK. In the medium term, the risk of a UK exit from the EU will also influence foreign investment momentum if the Conservative party secures power as we currently expect (Conservative plurality is our current main scenario).”
“The high level of UK external deficits is one of the major GBP downside risks, which would be amplified by a UK exit from the EU.”
“Nonetheless, we expect the ECB QE impact on the external balance to sustain GBP appreciation against the EUR and other European G10 currencies. Rate market pricing for the BoE rate hike is already delayed into H2 2016, limiting the downside risks to the GBP from BoE policy.”
“We are currently neutral on GBP after booking profits on 15 March ahead of the general election from our EUR short basket including EUR/GBP. We look to re-enter EUR/GBP short positions if election risks provide a good entry.”
Key Quotes
“Green shoots of the euro area economy are influencing international trade and investment flows into and out of the UK, and we think the net impact is likely to be GBP positive.”
“While the low sensitivity of EUR yields to economic momentum under the ECB’s autopilot QE make it difficult for the UK income deficit with the euro area to shrink materially, the steadily low yield environment with improved euro area economic sentiment should lead to stronger foreign fixed income investment flows into the UK.”
“In addition, the euro area economic recovery can shrink UK trade deficits with the euro area. While UK external deficits have been elevated, ECB QE will help the financing via both positive impacts on current and financial accounts of BoP, in our view.”
“In the short term, higher political risks related to the UK general election may negatively influence foreign investment into the UK. In the medium term, the risk of a UK exit from the EU will also influence foreign investment momentum if the Conservative party secures power as we currently expect (Conservative plurality is our current main scenario).”
“The high level of UK external deficits is one of the major GBP downside risks, which would be amplified by a UK exit from the EU.”
“Nonetheless, we expect the ECB QE impact on the external balance to sustain GBP appreciation against the EUR and other European G10 currencies. Rate market pricing for the BoE rate hike is already delayed into H2 2016, limiting the downside risks to the GBP from BoE policy.”
“We are currently neutral on GBP after booking profits on 15 March ahead of the general election from our EUR short basket including EUR/GBP. We look to re-enter EUR/GBP short positions if election risks provide a good entry.”