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ٹریڈنگ خبریں
27 Apr 2015
US durable goods not wholly bad – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Rob Carnell of ING, reviews the US durable goods order data release, and further notes that the results were mixed and won’t affect Fed’s outlook towards hike as April and beyond will be the key months for the data-dependent Fed.
Key Quotes
“Headline orders at 4.0% look reasonably good, but then they do tend to “saw-tooth” – and have been doing exactly that. Moreover, the volatile transport sector accounts for much of that, with orders ex-transport down 0.2% MoM.”
“We typically focus on a mixture of core capital goods and core capital shipments as our indicators for business investment within GDP – released next week, and the three-month moving averages for both remain quite negative, though not noticeably getting worse. Taken together, these figures loosely suggest a flat outcome for business investment, though there is a lot of room for error here.”
“These figures also hint at a slightly weaker inventory outcome, which might also weigh on the forthcoming GDP figures. But this is even more of a hazy relationship, and is likely to be one of the biggest sources of error between the consensus and actual GDP outcome.”
“None of this is going to provide the Fed with any evidence that the US economy has exited the soft patch. But then we believe that this first quarter activity data sheds little light on this question anyway, and any decision on the timing of monetary policy changes will focus much more on the data pertaining to April and beyond.”
Key Quotes
“Headline orders at 4.0% look reasonably good, but then they do tend to “saw-tooth” – and have been doing exactly that. Moreover, the volatile transport sector accounts for much of that, with orders ex-transport down 0.2% MoM.”
“We typically focus on a mixture of core capital goods and core capital shipments as our indicators for business investment within GDP – released next week, and the three-month moving averages for both remain quite negative, though not noticeably getting worse. Taken together, these figures loosely suggest a flat outcome for business investment, though there is a lot of room for error here.”
“These figures also hint at a slightly weaker inventory outcome, which might also weigh on the forthcoming GDP figures. But this is even more of a hazy relationship, and is likely to be one of the biggest sources of error between the consensus and actual GDP outcome.”
“None of this is going to provide the Fed with any evidence that the US economy has exited the soft patch. But then we believe that this first quarter activity data sheds little light on this question anyway, and any decision on the timing of monetary policy changes will focus much more on the data pertaining to April and beyond.”