CBR to keep rates unchanged, RUB potentially a very attractive currency - TDS,

FXStreet (Córdoba) - According to analysts from TDS, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will keep rates unchanged tomorrow and warned that if crude oil prices recover, the ruble (RUB) is potentially one of the most attractive emerging markets currencies.

Key Quotes:

“At tomorrow’s (29 January) Board meeting we, in line with the unanimous consensus, expect the CBR to keep its Key Rate on hold at 11%.

“Since the December Board meeting the ruble has fallen by 8% against the US dollar, largely tracking the downward move in oil prices.”

“ Although the economy is very weak and favourable base effects will cause headline inflation to fall further in the coming months, the CBR will not want to take any risks with the ruble by cutting now. We expect the CBR to be able to resume rate cuts around the middle of this year and are pencilling in cuts of about 75 bps for the whole of this year.”

“TD’s commodity analysts are becoming more positive on the outlook for oil, as they expect production to fall and do not believe that Iran will flood the market. They are forecasting Brent at $59 / bl by Q4 of this year. If the past relationship between USDRUB and oil is maintained, this would imply USDRUB at 57, making the ruble potentially one of the most attractive EM currencies this year.”