Markets Today: US election risk drives Yen higher, BOE in focus

Markets witnessed a volatile Asian session today, mainly driven by risk-off sentiment, sparked by renewed risks surrounding the US presidential elections, while holiday-thinned trading also added to the volatility.

The Japanese yen continued to benefit from the persistent risk-averse market condition, knocking-off USD/JPY to its lowest levels since early Oct. While rest of the majors took advantage of ongoing broad based USD weakness.

As we step into Europe, markets look forward to the UK services PMI data, followed by the EU membership court ruling on Brexit scheduled at 10.00GMT. The main risk event for the day remains the BOE interest rates decision and inflation hearings report, which is likely to have significant impact on fx markets.

While the US calendar offers a bunch of macro releases, including the weekly jobless claims, factory orders and ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

Main topics in Asia

Australia's Sept trade balance shrinks significantly as exports rise

Australia's trade balance for Sept came in at -1,227bn vs -1.7exp and -1,894bn last (revised from 2.01bn). Exports were +2% m/m vs 0% last, while imports were -1% m/m vs 0% last. 

Caixin China Oct services PMI strongest in 4 months

The Chinese services sector activity rose at the fastest pace in four months during Oct, a latest report from Caixin showed on Thursday.

FBI sources: Clinton foundation case moving towards "likely an indictment"

As cited by RealClearPolitics, Fox News Channel reported the latest news about the Clinton Foundation investigation from two sources inside the FBI.

OPEC’s Barkindo: Group is "on course" for a deal on Nov. 30

OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo crossed the wires, via Bloomberg, noting that the cartel has made "significant progress" and is "on course" for a deal on November 30.

Key focus for the day ahead

BOE decision: No longer expect a rate cut in November - RBS

Analysts at RBS note that they have revised their earlier call of a BOE Nov rate cut to a no Nov rate cut now, in response to the recent GBP weakness.

GBP/USD: Gains capped near 1.2350, awaits PMI, BOE

The GBP/USD pair failed once again near 1.2350 levels, and now consolidates the upside above 1.23 handle amid broad based US dollar weakness.

Brexit: High court judges to give their verdict at 10.00 GMT

As per the BBC report, the High Court is to rule on whether the government can begin the formal process of leaving the European Union without consulting Parliament.