AUD/USD found some room on 0.76 handle but short-lived as bears take back control

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7580, down 0.00% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7591 and low at 0.7574.

AUD/USD has bene consolidating the rally that really found traction once wires spread that Trump was again vocal about currency manipulation by the Chinese. For a brief spell overnight, the price found some space on the 0.76 handle, however, selling ensued and hard offers pushed the major commodity currency down to 0.7565 before some hostile bullish action drove the bears back behind 0.7580 resistance where the price has oscillated for the best part of the US afternoon and early Asia.  Analysts at Westpac do, however, see AUD/USD showing signs of a  break above the recent consolidative range of 0.7500-0.7600 still for the near term.

AUD/USD 1-3 month: 

However, the same analysts at more bearish medium term and see the price moving lower to 0.7400. "The US dollar’s impressive post-election rally may have paused, but still has potential to rise further during the months ahead. The Fed’s assertive tightening bias plus US fiscal expansion should maintain upside pressure on US interest rates and the US dollar. Against that coal and iron ore are likely to sustain a good portion of their dramatic rises, and economic data for Q4 and Q1 should improve, but these forces are subservient to the US dollar’s trend. Australia’s AAA rating will remain an issue into the May budget."

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AUD/USD levels

The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish. Looking to momentum indicators, the hourly 200 SMA is currently at 0.7560, up from the last close at 0.7558 and climbing. Analysts at Commerzbank noted that the Aussie has not sold off and currently they suspect it is attempting to stabilize ahead of tackling the 0.7648 2013-2016 down-trend. "Only above 0.7648 will negate our negative bias and introduce scope to the 0.7778/.7850 2016 highs and the 38.2% retracement." The 200 dma at 0.7519 has been supporting previous dips with a triple bottom around 0.7510/20, but a break there opens up grounds for follow through to go sub 7400, where the analysts said should alleviate upside pressure and trigger losses to 0.7312/00 then 0.7161/64, the recent lows.

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