US headline retail sales to advance by 0.4% m/m in July - TDS

Analysts at TDS suggest that US retail sales for July is the top-tier data release of the week and they are looking for headline retail sales to advance by 0.4% m/m, in line with the consensus, though they hold a more upbeat view on core retail sales.

Key Quotes

“After two consecutive soft readings, we look for sales in the control group to rise by a solid 0.5% m/m while ex-auto sales should post a healthy 0.4% m/m gain (market: 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively). This would be consistent with real PCE growth near a 2.5% pace in Q3. Also on the data calendar is Empire Manufacturing, which will give the first look at regional manufacturing conditions for August. The market looks for Empire Manufacturing to remain largely unchanged at 10.1 in August, which is near the midpoint of its recent range. Rounding things out are import prices for July and the NAHB Housing Index for August. The market expects both headline and core (ex. petrol) import prices to rise by 0.1% while the NAHB index should remain unchanged at 64.”