NZ net migration down in July, annual inflow still strong - Westpac

Satish Ranchhod, Senior Economist at Westpac, notes that New Zealand’s monthly net migration eased in July. However, this followed strong net inflows last month, and leaves annual net migration at a record level, he further adds.

Key Quotes

“Tourism remains a bright spot for the economy with a record number of international visitors over the past year.”

“Net migration

• July saw a net inflow of 5,800 people into the country on a permanent or long-term basis. That was down from 6,340 last month, and mainly reflected a drop off in arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens. Monthly net flows have levelled off at around 6,000 people per month.
• Despite the moderation in the monthly inflow, annual net migration climbed to a fresh record high of 72,400 in July.
• The majority of arrivals are coming over on work visas (up 15% over the past year). International students also account for a large share of arrivals, though these numbers are down 10% on last year. Other than Australia, the major markets for new migrants over the past year are the UK, China and India.
• The number of New Zealanders moving offshore remains very low, and we continue to see large numbers of New Zealand citizens returning from Australia. The net outflow of New Zealand citizens is at its lowest level since 1984. This accounts for half of the pick-up in net migration since 2011.”

“Tourism

• Visitor numbers pulled back in July after very strong inflows in June associated with the Lions tour. Nevertheless, tourist inflows remain very strong, with a record inflow of 3.66m people over the past year. The past year has seen strong growth in tourist numbers from Australia, the US and the UK. Numbers from China have eased off, but remain strong.
• We expect tourist flows will remain firm for some time yet, reflecting growing international appetite, as well as increases in domestic capacity (such as investment in hotels).”