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22 Aug 2017
AUD: Which comes first - A$ 0.75 or 0.85? - Westpac
Analysts at Westpac points out that last month they argued that they would see 0.75 rather than 0.85 next for the A$ and while it seems fair to argue they see neither any time soon, an important driver of this view is that capital flows into Australia appear to have become less supportive for the A$.
Key Quotes
“A key highlight of inflows over the last year has been the significant shift to equity funding versus debt funding. Our monthly proxy indicators for equity inflow suggests that story is waning.”
“Japanese demand for A$ assets has also shown signs of easing with outright selling in June for the first month since Nov 2014. While this appears to be as much a currency story, it emphasises that A$ yields are less attractive to Japanese investors.”
“So where has the additional demand come from to lift the A$ above 0.80? CFTC data suggests speculative activity has more than compensated – perhaps another reason to argue for 0.75 rather than 0.85 next.”