Europe: Week ahead – Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs’ analysts provide a brief preview of plenty of risk events lined up for release from the Euroland late this week.

Key Quotes:

“August HICP Inflation for the Euro area, Germany, France and Italy will be released.... German inflation will be published on Wednesday, with Italy and the Euro area following on Thursday. We expect Euro area annual headline inflation to rise by 0.2pp to +1.5%yoy in August, and core inflation to be unchanged at 1.2%yoy. In Germany, we expect a rise in the headline rate of inflation to +1.8%yoy. We expect +0.9%yoy in France, and +1.3%yoy in Italy.

There will be several Euro area and country-level sentiment indicator updates. Consensus expectations are for these to remain broadly unchanged. Final Euro Area Consumer and Business Confidence indicators for August will be published on Wednesday, with the flash consumer confidence indicator having shown a slight improvement on July.

August Manufacturing PMI data for the Euro Area, France, Italy, Germany and Spain will be published on Friday. The Flash Manufacturing PMIs were released for the Euro Area last Wednesday. At 57.4, the area-wide flash estimate exceeded expectations (Cons: 56.3); we do not expect a revision.

The second release of Q2 GDP growth in France and Italy will be published on Tuesday and Friday, respectively. We expect no change.

Unemployment rates for the Euro Area (July), Italy (July), and Germany (August)will be published on Thursday; they are expected to remain unchanged from previous months.

Euro Area July monetary aggregates data (including M3 growth) will be published on Monday, and MFI interest rate statistics will follow on Friday.

ECB's Vice-President Constancio speaks on Friday at the 43rd edition of "Intelligence on the World, Europe and Italy" Forum.”