EUR/SEK to drift lower, but stay close to the door - Nomura

Examining the minutes from October’s Riksbank meeting, analysts at Nomura do not think there is sufficient reason for the Riksbank to turn hawkish at December’s meeting.

Key Quotes

“A QE extension looks likely, and this would be inconsistent with current repo rate projections that forecast a Q3 2018 lift-off, a significant divergence from the ECB. As a result, there is a risk hike projections will be pushed further out. We expect EUR/SEK to range trade into December, and selling rallies around 9.75/9.80 makes sense with much Riksbank caution already in the price. However, we would look to long EUR/SEK around 9.55/9.60 levels, particularly into the December meeting, where a dovish tone remains likely.”