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29 Mar 2013
Forex Flash: Central banks highlight week ahead – Westpac
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The EUR is facing multiple wounds, as opportunities to sell strength likely few and far between. According to Global FX Strategist Sean Callow at Westpac, “Our 1-month 1.2700 target is revised to 1.2500 – suspect ECB plays a steady hand next week, but EUR should trade heavily into the meeting on heightened easing speculation amid disappointing PMIs/IFO, not to mention the negative confidence shock still reverberating from Cyprus.
A Bersani led Italian government seems very unlikely given signals from Grillo suggest Bersani will not be able to meet President Napolitano’s key test that he be able to pass a no confidence vote. Odds of fresh elections are warming but that will require the election of a new president, yet the key parties cannot even reach agreement on the candidate.
Even after the recent sharp rise Italian-bund 2yr spreads still sit below 200bp, albeit just. The spread could easily return to the 250-350bp range in coming weeks. EUR/CHF looks overvalued vs. a range of key Eurozone stress indicators and should be sold for a return to 1.2100.
A Bersani led Italian government seems very unlikely given signals from Grillo suggest Bersani will not be able to meet President Napolitano’s key test that he be able to pass a no confidence vote. Odds of fresh elections are warming but that will require the election of a new president, yet the key parties cannot even reach agreement on the candidate.
Even after the recent sharp rise Italian-bund 2yr spreads still sit below 200bp, albeit just. The spread could easily return to the 250-350bp range in coming weeks. EUR/CHF looks overvalued vs. a range of key Eurozone stress indicators and should be sold for a return to 1.2100.