US: Focus on home price index and consumer confidence data - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura point out that in the US home price appreciation continued to accelerate in February with the 12-month percent change in the Case-Shiller composite 20 index increasing 0.4pp to 6.8%.

Key Quotes

“With steady demand and continued supply shortages, we expect this trend to continue over the medium run. However, houses in low- to medium-tier markets may see a disproportionate share of the increases given recent tax legislation that could negatively affect high-end house price gains.”

“Conference Board’s consumer confidence: Considering continued strength in the labor market, we expect Conference Board’s consumer confidence index to rise to 130.0 in May, from 128.7 previously. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was unchanged at 98.8 as favorable assessment of tax cuts balanced concerns over tariffs. However, the future expectations index rose, consistent with consumers’ ongoing optimism about future economic conditions. Conference Board’s confidence measures likely reflect consumers’ positive outlook on the economy.”