RBI to cut rates by 25-40bps in April – Barclays

Rahul Bajoria, India economist at Barclays, expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut rates by 25-40 basis points (bps) next month.

Key quotes

“We believe the RBI in its communication has effectively closed the door on an intermeeting move, but will probably still consider a cut in the April policy meeting.

In the current circumstances of heightened uncertainty, rising global concerns and mounting downside risks, we believe the RBI may end up moving in a larger rather than smaller step to support the economy.

We still expect the RBI to ease the rate further, with room for a 25-40bp cut in April, and at least 65bp reduction in policy rates by June 2020, with risks tilted towards further easing,”

• USD/INR Price Analysis: Seesaws between 10-day SMA, 23.6% Fibonacci